1. 1- Abbas K. A. (2004) Reinventing Government Role in Transport Sector: The Way Forward. In Proceedings of 10th World Conference on Transport Research WCTR2004, Session H3: Deregulation, Privatisation and New Institutional Concepts. Istanbul, Turkey.

Abstract:

The main aim of this study was to develop a structured framework constituting the generic roles (functions and activities) that ought to be pursued by governments in national transport. The study starts by a world-wide state of the art review of roles played by Australian Department of Transport & Regional Services, United States Department of Transport, the Department of Environment, Transport & Regions in the UK and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport in Japan. This is followed by discussing three important notions and their effects on government role in the transport sector, namely privatization, sustainability and governance. The framework developed, in this research, classifies the perceived roles of a department of transport into three main categories. The first includes those roles that are necessary to enable the performance of the main roles, so called enabling roles. The second category includes the main instrumental roles of the ministry of transport. Main roles can be defined as those roles that represent the core tasks that ought to be mandated to a Ministry of Transport. The third category includes those roles that are supportive of the main roles. Supporting roles can be defined as those roles that are meant to assist in performing the main roles in an efficient and effective manner. The paper concludes by proposing a government reinvention process involving several phases and stages required to create necessary environment for performing such roles.

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1. 1- Abbas K. A. (2004) Assessment of National Transport Sector in Egypt: A Basis for Developing a Skeleton Strategic Plan. In Proceedings of 10th World Conference on Transport Research WCTR2004, Session H1: Public Sector Performance. Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract:

This paper starts by presenting a discussion describing current status of the national transport sector in Egypt including the institutional development of governmental bodies responsible for the sector. It goes on towards pursuing its objective of assessing the national transport sector in Egypt. In this context, a system analysis of the transport industry is conducted. Such analysis is meant to show the main interactions between components of the system as well as to identify the non-existence of some important interactions and the weaknesses encountered in existing ones. In pursuing a more comprehensive evaluation, a semantic assessment; using 31 factors, of the four main transport sub-sectors in Egypt, namely road, rail, river and air transport; was also conducted. Based on these assessments, a diagnostic identification of problems and main causes for the current performance of national transport sector is reached. The above reviews, analysis and assessment acted as the basis for developing a skeleton strategic plan for the national transport sector in Egypt. Such plan involves deciding on acceptable values, determining the vision, mission statement and goals of the Egyptian ministry of transport and finally identifying a continuum of necessary strategies, policies and measures that can be followed to attain the preset strategic goals.

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1. 1- Abbas K. A. and Abd-Allah H. Mona (1999) Estimation and Assessment of Cost Models for Main Transit Systems Operating in Cairo. Transport Reviews, Vol. 19, No. 4, pp. 353-375. Francis & Taylor, UK

Abstract:

This paper reviews the main characteristics of the provision of urban transit systems in Cairo, namely buses, minibuses, river buses, trams, and surface metros, all being currently operated by Cairo Transport Authority (CTA). The paper presents some generic types of indicators to compare and assess the performance of the five main urban transit systems provided by CTA. The CTA budget plan for the Financial Year 96/97 is reviewed. The absence of any form of cost modelling as an integral part of CTA budget plans is identified. In this paper, an attempt is made to develop cost models for the main urban transit systems operated by CTA. Four generic approaches for estimating cost models for transit services are comparatively reviewed, namely the causal factor, cost allocation, regression and temporal variation methods. Cost allocation methods are particularly applied in this research to estimate different cost models for the main transit systems operated by CTA. These models are meant to assist in predicting and showing the relative magnitude of expected changes in various cost categories, resulting from systems/services expansion or down-sizing for the transit modes operated by CTA. The development of such models is thought to contribute in raising the cost consciousness in CTA with the ultimate benefit of maximizing system efficiency.

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1. 2- Abbas K. A. and Abd-Allah H. Mona (1998) Estimation of Consumption and Requirement Models for Bus Transit System Operated by Cairo Transport Authority. Civil Engineering Research Magazine (CERM), Volume 20, No. 3, pp. 441-461. Faculty of Engineering, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt.

Abstract:

Mass transit systems in the city of Cairo are being mainly operated by the Cairo Transport Authority (CTA). These transit systems include buses, minibuses, trams, metros and river buses. In this paper, the CTA bus transit system is reviewed, where the main operational characteristics of CTA bus garages are presented. The core of the paper lies in the estimation and testing of different regression models that are meant to produce an acceptable presentation of the consumption of materials and the requirement of staff by buses operated by CTA. The development of materials consumption models include developing separate models to represent the consumption of fuel, oil and lubricants by buses. On the other hand, the development of staff requirements models include developing separate models to represent the requirement of drivers, conductors, and engineering staff by buses. More than twenty different linear regression models are developed for each of the above mentioned consumption and requirement parameters. Comparative statistical analysis of these models are conducted and models that are judged to produce the best presentation of reality are identified. Ultimately, these are meant to minimize the operating costs, without affecting the quality of produced services. These can also give guidelines for the decision maker on areas that warrant intervention so as to reduce consumption rates and minimise requirements. Ultimately, this would lead to minimizing operating costs, without affecting the quality of produced services. The paper concludes with a set of conclusions and recommendations that are meant to improve the performance of the bus transit system operated by CTA in Cairo.

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1. 1- Abbas K. A. and El-Maksoud A. A. (1999) Development of a Generic Analytical Framework for Assessing Impact of Inefficiencies on Bus Operation in Cairo. Scientific Bulletin, Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University, Volume 34, No. 1, Part 1: Architecture and Civil Engineering. Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt. pp. 83-109.

Abstract:

There is a tangible move, across cities of the world, towards achieving efficiency gains in the bus industry. The main bus transit system in Cairo is being provided by Cairo Transport Authority (CTA). The paper starts by reviewing some important indicators for buses operated by CTA. This research presents a classification of generic types of inefficiencies identified in public bus operation, namely; inefficiencies causing cost incurring, inefficiencies causing revenue loss, and inefficiencies causing cost incurring and revenue loss. The paper specifically identifies, categorizes and reviews those inefficiencies, which are reported in CTA annual statistical reports. These reports show losses in operation time being mainly attributed to four main causes, namely Engineering Failures, Operational Inefficiencies, Accidents’ occurrence, and Force Majeure incidents. The main objective of this research is to develop a generic analytical framework for assessing the impact of these types of inefficiencies on public bus operation. In structuring this framework, several statistical relations, based on a priori causalities, are estimated. The paper concludes by presenting a demonstration of the utilization of the above relationships, within the developed analytical framework, for CTA. This takes the form of conducting sensitivity tests that are meant to explore impact of potential inefficiencies in terms of time and revenue lost as a result of varying the extent of services provided by CTA.

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1. 2- Abbas K. A. (1996) A Generic System for Planning Activities in a Bus Transit Company. Proceedings of 24th European Transport Forum Organised by Planning and Transport Research and Computation (PTRC), Seminar F: Public Transport Planning and Operations, London, UK
   http://www.etcproceedings.org/paper/a-generic-system-for-planning-activities-in-a-bus-transit-company

Abstract:

Managers of bus transit companies have the task of managing their companies’ resources (financial, human, material, fleet of vehicles) in an efficient and effective manner. This task is becoming more difficult due to tangible pressures, mainly in the form of limited available funds and shortages in subsidies resulting from budget deficits and financial cuts. Planning of bus transit activities is becoming an increasingly complex and sophisticated task. The various elements involved in managing a transit company call for coordinated approaches for future planning. Reorientation is needed in the planning of bus transit activities from the standard piecemeal approach to the holistic system approach. Efforts to develop an integrated system that considers within its framework the planning of the main activities involved in the management of a transit company ought to be pursued. This paper presents a generic procedure for planning bus transit activities. This procedure is developed within a system approach framework. It contains eight subsystems namely: a vehicle maintenance management system, a vehicle operation management system, a new vehicles procurement management system, frequency setting, cost accounting, fare determination and subsidy computation, travel demand prediction and performance evaluation. The proposed planning approach provides a better understanding and insight into the inter- and intra- structural feedback relationships that exist among the various components involved in the overall management of a bus transit company. It is meant to achieve an integrated tactical planning of activities constituting the management of a bus transit company. It is also meant to provide practical and credible support to transit managers, so that they can make more rational and informed planning decisions. Decisions should be targeted towards achieving an efficient and effective management of bus transit activities, so as to sustain and maximize benefits obtained from resource utilization.

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1. 3- Abbas K. A. (2003) Modelling Bus Transit Operation: A Basis for Budgeting and Fare Determination. In Proceedings of European Transport Conference, Seminar on Innovative Methods in Transport Analysis, Planning and Appraisal: Public Transport Models. Strasbourg, France.
   http://www.etcproceedings.org/paper/modelling-bus-transit-operation-a-basis-for-budgeting-and-fare-determination

Abstract:

Transit planning and management is a combination of art and science. The proposed research aims at investigating and developing the rules, practices, procedures, steps and policies involved in the planning and management of a bus transit company. This is followed by integrating these rules and procedures, as mathematical formulations and algorithms, within a model that simulates the interactions among the components of the bus transit system. The developed model consists of several interrelated modules, the bus maintenance, operation, procurement, fare determination and cost accounting modules, which represent the supply aspects of bus industry. In addition, the demand analysis module, representing the demand side of bus industry. The model is meant to provide better understanding and insight into the feedback relationships that exist between components forming the supply parameters of bus transit as well as affecting the demand. Overall, such model is needed to provide practical and credible support to transit managers to explore a wide variety of alternative scenarios and examine their effects on the budget and performance of a company, so that they can make more rational and informed planning decisions. A scenario can be composed of the user specification of certain relationships between model parameters, selection of policies and specification of values for key input parameters. The applicability of the model as a tool that can support the planning and budgeting decisions of bus managers is fully demonstrated and evaluated using a case study.

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1. 1- Abbas K. A., Saleh A. E., and Bahgat A. (1992) Towards Market Economy: Past Present and Future Policies in the Intercity Bus Transport in Egypt. Proceedings of 20th Planning and Transport Research and Computation (PTRC) Summer Annual Meeting, Seminar J: Financing Transport Infrastructure: Transport Organisation in Market Economies, Manchester, UK, pp. 129-147.

Abstract:

The Egyptian transport industry is undergoing substantial changes within the framework of the national economic reform programme. There is a tangible move towards deregulation and privatisation. The current position could be mainly described as a relaxation of the controls over nationalised transport companies and a loosening of the administrative regulation. The changes are meant to restructure public transport companies and transform them into market-oriented companies. This paper reviews the intercity transport policies in Egypt with emphasis on the intercity bus transport.

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1. 2- Abbas K. A. (1993) Performance Measures Used for Comparing the Achievements of Passenger Transport Companies in Egypt. Proceedings of 3rd International Conference on Competition and Ownership in Surface Passenger Transport, Workshop No. 4: Planning and Analysis. Toronto (Mississauga), Ontario, Canada, pp. 377-390.

Abstract:

In light of the current deregulation of the transport industry in Egypt, this paper explores the different types of performance indicators that are used in the evaluation of the yearly achievements of the intercity passenger transport companies in Egypt. The paper presents and compares the performance of these companies over the financial year 91/92. It stresses the importance of some financial and operational performance measures. It suggests the inclusion of other performance measures that are meant to guide the mangers of these companies to steer the companies safely towards reaching more stable grounds and conditions that can encourage and instigate profit making.

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1. 3- Abbas K. A. (1994) Policies for Improving Operational Profitability in Intercity Bus Companies in Egypt. Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Travel Behaviour, Workshop 6: Transport Management, Volume II, Santiago, Chile, pp. 815-826.

Abstract:

The paper starts by laying down the current organisational scene within which transport companies in Egypt operate. The main objective of transport companies is to maximise profit. Intercity bus companies are accountable for the financial profitability they produce. This paper presents two important financial indicators, namely the operating ratio and operational profitability. The paper considers some of the elements leading to the generation of these financial ratios. In doing so, it disintegrates operating cost into its different components establishing their relative weights. Costs and productivity of staff as well as of bus kilometre are examined. Problems related to age and mark composition of intercity bus fleets are explored. An analysis of the sensitivity of operational profitability to reductions in operational cost components is presented. In light of the current deregulation of the transport industry in Egypt and based on the potential issues raised in the paper, the core of the paper suggests a set of policies aimed at reducing operational costs and increasing operational revenue in the intercity bus companies in Egypt, thus improving the operational profitability in these companies.

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1. 1- Abbas K. A. (2009) Integrated Programs for Mitigating Traffic Problems in Developing Countries: An In Depth Analysis of Experts Judgment. Advances in Transportation Studies: An International Journal,. University of Rome, Rome, Italy. Under Publication.

Abstract:

This research starts by developing a comprehensive inventory and categorization of demand and supply-based policies and measures that are aimed at relieving traffic problems in metropolitan cities. A set of generic criteria that can be used as a basis for the judgmental assessment of such policies and measures is identified and selected. An attitudinal questionnaire is then designed to elicit the judgment of transport, traffic and highway experts regarding potentiality (efficiency and effectiveness), public acceptability, applicability, perceived cost and priority of implementation of these policies and measures. Appropriate nonparametric statistical tests and techniques are selected and applied to conduct an in depth statistical analysis of gathered expert information. The main purpose of such analysis is to obtain judgment patterns of experts and degree of consensus among them. Statistical analysis is complemented by a weighting procedure to establish the potential achievement rate of each policy and measure and hence to support in making decisions on whether to use and implement such policy or measure in relieving traffic problems. As a result of the analysis, an integrated package of traffic relief policies and measures is recommended for developing countries.

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1. 2- Abbas K. A., Okail O., and Mabrouk I. (1997) A Trio Management Package for Relieving Traffic Congestion in Cairo: Traffic, Travel Demand and Land Use Management. Proceedings of 25th European Transport Forum, Organised by Planning & Transport Research & Computation (PTRC), Seminar C/D: Policy, Planning and Sustainability, London, UK, pp. 323-349.
   http://www.etcproceedings.org/paper/a-trio-management-package-for-relieving-traffic-congestion-in-cairo-traffic-tr

Abstract:

The traditional strategy for tackling the traffic congestion problem has been, for years, to add more capacity to the transport supply system through expansion of road network infrastructure by widening existing roads and constructing new ones, thus allowing for better traffic conditions. However, this approach has its limitations, in terms of absorbing an enormous amount of scarce financial and land resources, causing environmental intrusion, and generally increasing the environmental and safety hazards. Above all, this approach has frequently been reported to ultimately cause the generation of new and suppressed traffic. In many countries, where resources are becoming limited, the tendency has been to adopt policies and measures that enable the utilization of road space in the most efficient manner. Such strategy is known as Traffic Management and Control. Both strategies can be grouped under the heading supply-based strategies. In recent years, a significant change in thinking had emerged. This advocates demand-based strategies whereby policies and measures that affect the pattern of the demand for people to travel are selected and implemented. Such measures can be grouped under Travel (Traffic) Demand Management and Land Use Management strategies. The overall aim of this research is to provide a means of understanding Travel Demand Management in a comprehensive manner and assist in decisions on whether to use and implement (i.e. assess potentiality of) Travel Demand Management in relieving traffic congestion in Cairo.

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1. 3- Abbas K. A. (2001) Environmentally Sustainable Transport Strategies: The Way Forward in Metropolitan Cities. In 12th International Conference on Traffic Safety in Three Continents – Session 11: Costs and Environment. Organised by VTI, TRB, CSIR, FERSI, HNNAT and held in Moscow. pp. 1-12. Published by Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute VTI, Sweden.
   http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/www.vti.se/ContentPages/49386654.pdf

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with one of the three requirements of a sustainable transport system, namely the environmental dimension. It starts by presenting components and interactions of the transport and traffic systems using causal diagrams. Generic traffic problems are identified and their causes categorized. A classification of demand and supply-based policies and measures that can be used in designing environmentally sustainable transport strategies is depicted. Such strategies are targeted towards minimizing the generic traffic problems encountered in metropolitan cities i.e. traffic congestion, accidents, environmental degradation and energy inefficiencies. In this paper, Travel Demand and Land Use Management are considered as two of the basic pillars for designing environmentally sustainable transport strategies. Criteria for comparing demand versus supply-based policies are suggested. These are applied to assess the benefits and limitations of each policy, hence assisting decision makers in the prioritisation and choice of such policies.

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1. 4- Abbas K. A. (2004) Experts Judgment: A Basis for Developing Integrated Programs for Mitigating Traffic Problems in Mega Cities. In Proceedings of 10th World Conference on Transport Research WCTR2004, Session H10: Urban Transport Policy Instruments. Istanbul, Turkey.

Abstract:

This research starts by developing a comprehensive inventory and categorization of demand and supply-based policies and measures that are aimed at relieving traffic problems in metropolitan cities. A set of generic criteria that can be used as a basis for the judgmental assessment of such policies and measures is identified and selected. An attitudinal questionnaire is then designed to elicit the judgment of transport, traffic and highway experts regarding potentiality (efficiency and effectiveness), public acceptability, applicability, perceived cost and priority of implementation of these policies and measures. Appropriate nonparametric statistical tests and techniques are selected and applied to conduct an in depth statistical analysis of gathered expert information. The main purpose of such analysis is to obtain judgment patterns of experts and degree of consensus among them. Statistical analysis is complemented by a weighting procedure to establish the potential achievement rate of each policy and measure and hence to support in making decisions on whether to use and implement such policy or measure in relieving traffic problems. As a result of the analysis, three complementary traffic relief programs were developed. The research concludes with proposing an action program for the implementation of the suggested traffic relief package.

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1. 5- Abbas K. A., Okail O., and Mabrouk I. (1996) Assessment of Potentiality of Travel Demand Management in Relieving Traffic Congestion in Cairo: A Case Study with Car Users in Affluent Districts. Scientific Bulletin, Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University, Volume 31, No. 4, Part 1: Architecture and Civil Engineering. Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt. pp. 115-146.

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1. 6- د خالد عبد العظيم عباس (2000) تحليل أسباب مشاكل المرور فى المدن واقتراح الاستراتيجيات والسياسات والتدابير اللازمة للتخفيف من حدتها-مجلة الطرق العربية – جمهورية مصر العربية

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1. 7- د على هيكل و د خالد عبد العظيم عباس وأخرون (2001) أثر تخفيض أيام العمل الأسبوعى على نظام النقل داخل المدن بالتطبيق على مدينتى القاهرة والإسكندرية-مجلة الطرق العربية – جمهورية مصر العربية

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1. 1- Abbas K. A. & Aly M. G. (2004) Logistics Chain Analysis of Upper Egypt Wheat Milling Company: A Basis for Developing Efficiency Models for Transport Activities. International Journal of Logistics: Research and Applications, Vol. 7(2), pp. 85-107. Taylor & Francis, UK.
   2- Abbas K. A. and Aly M. G. (2003) Developing Transport Cost and Revenue Models Based on Logistics Chain analysis of Wheat Milling Company. In Proceedings of Logistics Research Network Annual Conference (LRN 2003), pp. 1-8. Organised by Institute of Logistics and Transport. City Cass Business School, London, UK.
   3- Abbas K. A. & Aly M. G. (2003) Logistics Chain Analysis: A Basis for Analysing Efficiency of Wheat-Flour Transport in Egypt. In Proceedings of 15th Annual Conference for Nordic Researchers in Logistics, (NOFOMA 2003) Striving for Leading Edge Logistics, Session: Transport, pp. 344-367. Edited by Jari Juga (ISBN 951-42-7064-9). Oulu, Finland. Also as web publication:
   http://www.nofoma.org/conferences/nofoma2003/program/information.htm

Abstract:

This paper develops a methodological approach that is meant to compute and assess the financial efficiency of transport activities within a company. The applicability of this approach is demonstrated by using 1998/99 data and information from the Upper Egypt wheat-milling company. It starts by constructing two logistics chains that simulate the process involved in the wheat-milling business in Egypt. These chains are used as the basis for identifying types of transported commodities, unique transport phases, trip origins and destinations of each of these phases as well as the transport modes and providers involved. This is followed by compiling and synthesizing for each transport phase a number of origin/destination matrices representing operational data and generic operational variables. In addition, similar size matrices are synthesized to represent transport costs and transport revenues. Manipulations of the developed matrices are undertaken to compute financial efficiency for transport activities as well as to develop disaggregate route-based cost and revenue allocation models for transported wheat and flour. These are used in identifying profitable and non-profitable transport routes. Such conclusion assists in re-pricing transport services along certain routes, or termination of operation of other routes.

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This article may be used for research, teaching and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, re-distribution, re-selling, loan or sub-licensing, systematic supply or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden.

1. 4- Abbas K. A. (2004) Logistics Chain Analysis: A Basis for Assessing Greenhouse Impacts of Transport Activities for Industrial Premises. In Proceedings of 10th World Conference on Transport Research WCTR2004, Session B3: Logistics, Freight and Fleet Management. Istanbul, Turkey.

Abstract:

The main production and warehousing premises of Egypt Eastern Company for Tobacco is currently located in four different locations in Giza, Greater Cairo. The company is planning to agglomerate and relocate all of its premises into one big location in the industrial area of 6th of October new City to the south-west of Cairo. This research is concerned with assessing and comparing the greenhouse environmental impacts, resulting from transport activities in the two alternative location scenarios. In this context, two logistics chains that simulate activities and flow of raw materials and products for the company are developed. The first represents the company activities and operation from its current locations, while the second represents the expected operation of the company from its planned new location in 6th of October City. Transport phases in both chains are uniquely identified and described. A literature survey is conducted to obtain appropriate emission factors of the six main greenhouse gases emitted by transport activities. For each of the two considered industrial location scenarios, transport activities, represented by annual number of travelled kilometers, are multiplied by appropriate emission factors and expected annual values of six types of emissions are obtained. Finally, a comparative analysis is conducted to determine the location scenario expected to produce the least greenhouse emissions as a result of its transport activities.

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1. 1- Abbas K. A. & Mokhtar M. M. (2003) Assessing and Improving Container Handling Services at Alexandria Port: Based on Logistics & Questionnaire Analysis. In 15th Annual Conference for Nordic Researchers in Logistics, (NOFOMA 2003) Striving for Leading Edge Logistics, Work in Progress Session: Transport. Oulu, Finland. As web publication:
   http://www.nofoma.org/conferences/nofoma2003/program/information.htm
   2- Abbas K. A. & Mokhtar M. M (2003) Logistics Chain Analysis of Alexandria Container Handling Company in Egypt: A Basis for Assessing Services. In Proceedings of European Transport Conference, Seminar on Freight and Logistics: Operations and Performance of Maritime Terminals. Strasbourg, France.
   http://www.etcproceedings.org/paper/logistics-chain-analysis-of-alexandria-container-handling-company-in-egypt-a-b

Abstract:

This research aims at developing two logistics chains that simulate the activities performed by Alexandria Container Handling Company (ACHC). The first is the chain describing the process involved in handling imported containers and the second is the chain concerned with handling exported containers. These chains include activities such as loading, unloading of containers, internal transport to container storage yards, handling of containers, customs procedures, other inspections and quality control, and finally loading of containers to customers’ vehicles. The research presents an assessment of the quality of services provided by ACHC. This is based on examining the developed logistics chains as well as on the analysis of 45 service assessment questionnaires completed by ACHC customers. A diagnostic identification of strengths and weaknesses of ACHC then follows. The paper concludes with proposing a number of potential measures and considerations aimed at producing improvements to the operation of the current logistics chains for the company, in particular, as well as for other container handling companies.

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1. 1- Abbas K. A. (2003) Environmental Assessment of Road Alignments Based On Multicriteria Scoping: A Case Study of Cairo-Ain Sukhna Freeway. Journal of Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, Vol. 21, No. (4), pp. 323-330. Beech Tree Publishing, UK.
   http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/beech/iapa/2003/00000021/00000004/art00007

Abstract:

This research develops a multicriteria scoping framework by which alternative road alignments can be assessed, using the Cairo–Ain Sukhna freeway in Egypt as an example. Four alternative alignments were assessed using 60 comparative criteria covering technical, accessibility, economic and financial matters, development, safety and security, severance, social considerations, as well as natural and man-made environmental aspects. Baseline information was collected from maps, site visits and consultants’ reports. A comparative analysis ranks the alternative alignments based on their potential impacts. Weightings, giving higher weights to environmental aspects, are applied to the rankings, and the best alternative is identified. The multicriteria scoping framework proved a sufficient tool for assessing alternative road alignments and for selecting the most environmentally preferable one.

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1. 2- Abbas K. A. (2004) Logistics Chain Analysis: A Basis for Assessing Greenhouse Impacts of Transport Activities for Industrial Premises. In Proceedings of 10th World Conference on Transport Research WCTR2004, Session B3: Logistics, Freight and Fleet Management. Istanbul, Turkey.

Abstract:

The main production and warehousing premises of Egypt Eastern Company for Tobacco is currently located in four different locations in Giza, Greater Cairo. The company is planning to agglomerate and relocate all of its premises into one big location in the industrial area of 6th of October new City to the south-west of Cairo. This research is concerned with assessing and comparing the greenhouse environmental impacts, resulting from transport activities in the two alternative location scenarios. In this context, two logistics chains that simulate activities and flow of raw materials and products for the company are developed. The first represents the company activities and operation from its current locations, while the second represents the expected operation of the company from its planned new location in 6th of October City. Transport phases in both chains are uniquely identified and described. A literature survey is conducted to obtain appropriate emission factors of the six main greenhouse gases emitted by transport activities. For each of the two considered industrial location scenarios, transport activities, represented by annual number of travelled kilometers, are multiplied by appropriate emission factors and expected annual values of six types of emissions are obtained. Finally, a comparative analysis is conducted to determine the location scenario expected to produce the least greenhouse emissions as a result of its transport activities.

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1. 1- Abbas K. A. (2004) Framework for Assessing Traffic Impacts Generated by Mega Complexes: A Case Study of San Stefano Grand Plaza in Egypt. Journal of Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, Vol. 22, No. (4), pp. 311-325.Beech Tree Publishing, UK.
   http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/beech/iapa/2004/00000022/00000004/art00006

Abstract:

This paper develops a generic framework of the process involved in conducting traffic impact assessment (TIA) for mega-complexes, applies it to a real world unique project and derives lessons of use in similar situations. The process involves surveys and analysis of present traffic and pedestrian circulation systems, and parking and transit conditions, to establish current levels of services, traffic problems and issues. Projections are made of the normal growth in traffic and generated demand, as a result of proposed developments and land-use changes. Future expected levels of services are determined and compared for the with-project and without-project scenarios, taking into account other expected traffic issues, such as pedestrian, parking, safety, and environmental problems. Finally, ways of mitigating adverse effects are explored and assessed. The suggested TIA process is applied to San Stefano grand plaza, Alexandria, Egypt.

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1. 1- White P., Bahgat A. G., El-Tony F., El-Mahdi R., Boshra E., Abbas K. A., Fattah A., and Al-Keelany O. (1999) Impacts of the Cairo Metro (Passenger Survey). Sixth International Conference on Competition and Ownership in Land Passenger Transport, Theme 3: User Needs and Impacts on Public Transport Systems. Cape Town, South Africa.
   2- Bahgat A. G., El-Tony F., El-Mahdi R., Boshra E., Abbas K. A., Fattah A., Al-Keelany O., and White P. R. (1998) Impacts of the Cairo Metro. Third International Workshop - Transportation Planning Methodologies for Developing Countries: Emerging Trends. Indian Institute of Technology, Mumbai, India.

Abstract:

The Cairo Metro – the first in Africa and the Middle East – is a two-line system, heavily used. Data from the operator and a direct passenger survey are used to illustrate patterns of use and draw policy implications for other systems. While current revenue exceeds operating costs, cross-subsidies may exist between different passenger groups as a result of highly discounted student season tickets. A fare increase in 1996 is used to estimate short-run elasticity of demand with respect to price, approximately –0.2, a similar figure to other metro systems. Substantial use is made of motorised feeder modes, notably shared taxis (paratransit minibuses). The high level of use occurs despite a substantial premium over other public transport fares, and lack of integrated ticketing. A likely explanation is that the fares are 'reasonable' compared with incomes, and that the price differential is offset for many users by the time savings vis a vis congested traffic conditions.

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This article may be used for research, teaching and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, re-distribution, re-selling, loan or sub-licensing, systematic supply or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden.

1. 1- Bahgat A. and Abbas K. A.. (1996) Effect of Accessibility on the Development of New Cities in Egypt: A System Framework. International Urban Development Association (INTA) 20th Annual World Congress - “New Urban Communities: Past Experience and Future Responses”, Cairo, Egypt. (Originally in English-Selected & Translated to Chinese).
   2- د خالد عبد العظيم عباس (1996) تأثير سهولة الوصول بشبكات النقل على تنمية المدن الجديدة فى مصر من خلال إطار متكامل
   3- Bahgat A. and Abbas K. A.. (1997) Effect of Accessibility on the Development of New Cities in Egypt: A System Framework. Urbanismo, Revista Del Colegio Oficial De Arquitectos De Madrid No. 31, Madrid, Spain. pp. 50-57. (In Spanish)

Abstract:

The main objective of this research is to gain a general insight into the development process of new cities in Egypt and, in particular, into the role played by transport. Efforts to develop an integrated framework that considers the main factors contributing to the development process is pursued. This framework is used to show the effect of transport accessibility in comparison to other infrastructure provisions (water and waste water projects, electricity and communications projects) on the development of new cities in Egypt. Development is defined in terms of industrial and population development. The intention of this research is to use historical data to develop statistical models to verify the causal relationships displayed in this framework.

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This article may be used for research, teaching and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, re-distribution, re-selling, loan or sub-licensing, systematic supply or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden.

This article may be used for research, teaching and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, re-distribution, re-selling, loan or sub-licensing, systematic supply or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden.

1. 4- Abbas K. A., and Bahgat A. (1992) Transport and the Industrial Development in New Cities in Egypt (A Case Study). Proceedings of the 1st International Conference: Towards Better Environment, Session 1: Transportation and Traffic Engineering. Transportation Department, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt.

Abstract:

The main objective of this study is to gain a general insight into the development process of new cities in Egypt and, in particular, into the role played by transport. To achieve this, a questionnaire survey was designed and sent to industrial enterprises in two of the new cities in Egypt, namely Tenth of Ramadan and Sadat new cities. The questionnaire responses were analysed using nonparametric statistical tests. The main purpose of the analysis of data obtained from thequestionnaire responses is to understand and infer, in statistical terms, the way in which industrial enterprises in new cities in Egypt perceive the role played by transport in their choice of location, progress and development. The other purpose is to identify and establish, in statistical terms, the relative importance of factors considered necessary to foster the development of industrial enterprises in new cities in Egypt. The most important conclusions inferred from the questionnaire analysis is that mangers of industrial enterprises considered transport accessibility to be one of the significant factors in their choice of location. However, transport in general is not perceived by the industrial enterprises to be a source of problems in their future development and progress.

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1. 1- Abbas K. A. (2004) Traffic Safety Assessment and Development of Predictive Models for Accidents on Rural Roads in Egypt. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 36(2), pp. 149-163. Pergamon Press, UK.
   http://ipac.kacst.edu.sa/eDoc/2006/157028_1.pdf

Abstract:

This paper starts by presenting a conceptualization of indicators, criteria and accidents’ causes that can be used to describe traffic safety. The paper provides an assessment of traffic safety conditions for rural roads in Egypt. This is done through a three-step procedure. First, deaths per million vehicle kilometers are obtained and compared for Egypt, three other Arab countries and six of the G-7 countries. Egypt stands as having a significantly high rate of deaths per 100 million vehicle kilometers. This is followed by compiling available traffic and accident data for five main rural roads in Egypt over a 10-year period (1990–1999). These are used to compute and compare 13 traffic safety indicators for these roads. The third step for assessing traffic safety for rural roads in Egypt is concerned with presenting a detailed analysis of accident causes. The paper moves on to develop a number of statistical models that can be used in the prediction of the expected number of accidents, injuries, fatalities and casualties on the rural roads in Egypt. Time series data of traffic and accidents, over a 10 years period for the considered roads, is utilized in the calibration of these predictive models. Several functional forms are explored and tested in the calibration process. Before proceeding to the development of these models three ANOVA statistical tests are conducted to establish whether there are any significant differences in the data used for models’ calibration as a result of differences among the considered five roads.

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1. 2- Abbas K. A. & Al Hossieny A. (2004) In-depth Statistical Analyses of Accident Databases. Part 2: A Case Study. Advances in Transportation Studies: An International Journal, Vol. 1 (4), Section A, pp. 57-67. University of Rome, Rome, Italy.
   3- Abbas K. A. & Al Hossieny A. (2001) A Generic Approach for In-Depth Statistical Investigation of Accident Characteristics and Causes. In 12th International Conference on Traffic Safety in Three Continents – Session 10: Data and Models Organised by VTI, TRB, CSIR, FERSI, HNNAT and held in Moscow. pp. 1-13. Published by Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute VTI, Sweden.
   http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/www.vti.se/ContentPages/49386654.pdf

Abstract:

The main aim of this research is to develop a generic approach for the utilization of statistical methods to conduct basic as well as in-depth investigation of accident databases. This is meant to obtain accident characteristics as well as to isolate accident causes and hence assist in the selection of specific appropriate traffic safety countermeasures. The paper presents a full description of the developed approach. The applicability of the approach is demonstrated by analyzing an accident database. In this context, the paper presents and discusses the results and conclusions of the in-depth statistical analysis of accidents and establishes, in statistical terms, the specific characteristics and causes for such accidents. Such focused conclusions are used to suggest some specific safety countermeasures.

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1. 1- Abbas K. A. (2004) Developing a Conceptual Model for Sustainable Management of Traffic Safety. Part 1: Methodology. Advances in Transportation Studies: An International Journal, Vol. 1 (4), Section A, pp. 33-56. University of Rome, Rome, Italy.
   2- Abbas K. A. (1996) A System Approach for Sustainable Management of Traffic Safety (Part II). Proceedings of 24th European Transport Forum Organised by Planning & Transport Research and Computation (PTRC), Seminar H: Traffic Management and Road Safety, London, UK
   http://www.etcproceedings.org/paper/a-system-approach-for-sustainable-management-of-traffic-safety

Abstract:

In this article, the concept, ingredients and levels of sustainable traffic safety management are proposed. The paper presents a thorough review of the literature showing a number of frameworks/approaches that were suggested to conduct traffic safety work in a systematic, integrated manner. The core of the paper lies in developing a conceptual model aimed at achieving sustainable management of traffic safety. The proposed process encompasses all the phases, functions and activities that ought to be pursued within a sustainable management process of traffic safety. The paper presents, in a structured manner, these phases, functions and activities. It concludes by discussing the advantages and main limitation of the proposed model. In this context, a comparison of the proposed model versus the ones reviewed in the literature is also presented.

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1. 3- Abbas K. A. (2004) Assessment and Improvement of Road Safety in Developing Countries: Egypt as a Prototype Case Study. Advances in Transportation Studies: An International Journal, Vol. 1 (3), Section A, pp. 5-24. University of Rome, Rome, Italy.
   4- Abbas K. A. (2010) 3 Step Generic Procedure to Assess Road Safety: A Case Study of Egypt. In Proceedings of the 15th International Conference Road Safety on Four Continents, - Abu Dhabi, UAE, Session 3: Road Safety Plans and Strategies, pp. 142-154. Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI) & UAE National Transport Authority

Abstract:

This paper starts by presenting a conceptualization of the road safety pyramid, its components and affecting factors. The paper develops a three-step procedure to assess road safety conditions. More than 40 criteria are identified and applied in an attempt to semantically assess the road safety culture. Deaths per million vehicle kilometers are obtained and compared. This is followed by compiling traffic and accident data. These are used to compute and compare 13 traffic safety indicators for these roads. The third stage for assessing traffic safety is concerned with presenting a detailed analysis of accident causes. More than 26 causes are identified. These are categorized under six main categories, namely driver related, pedestrian related, vehicle related, road related, environment-related causes and other causes. Furthermore, the paper develops an integrated road safety programme composed of 16 fields of actions. Each of these contains a number of recommended policies, measures and actions targeted to improve road safety. These are also categorized in accordance with the concerned authority/agency responsible for implementation. The paper concludes by suggesting further road safety research that is needed.

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1. 1- Abbas K. A. Ghareib A. H. and Wahdan A. H. (2009) Safety Modeling and Improvement of Railroad Grade Crossings in Egypt. Advances in Transportation Studies: An International Journal. University of Rome, Rome, Italy. Under Publication.
   2- Abbas K. A. Ghareib A. H. and Wahdan A. H. (2003) Development of Safety Proxy Models for Railroad Grade Crossings in Greater Cairo. In Proceedings of 6th World Congress on Railway Research (WCRR 2003: From Birth to Renaissance), Session: Human Factors, pp. 301-317. Edinburgh, Scotland, UK.

Abstract:

The paper starts by presenting a generic conceptualization of factors affecting safety of railroad grade crossings. This is followed by classification of different types of railroad grade crossings. Probabilistic safety models are developed, where accidents occurring at railroad grade intersections are defined as an outcome of a collision between a train and a vehicle(s) or a collision between a train and a pedestrian(s). The research develops statistical models that relate crossing safety at railroad crossings, represented by the potentiality of accident occurrence, to exposure parameters such as vehicle and pedestrian flows. The potentiality of accident occurrence is being expressed in terms of crossing violations whether vehicle and/or pedestrian violations. Five functional forms were utilized, namely linear, power, logarithmic, exponential and quadratic polynomial. To establish goodness of fit and statistical significance of the calibrated models two statistical indicators were computed namely the R2 and the F-statistic. A total of 50 statistical models were calibrated. The power function was the most dominant. The paper concludes by proposing a package of countermeasures that is meant to improve the traffic safety conditions at railroad grade crossings. Such package includes ten categories, namely organizational, education, training, mass-media, train related, evaluation, engineering and maintenance, regulatory, enforcement, and intelligent transport systems.

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1. 1- Abbas K. A., Mabrouk I., and Al-Araby A. K. (1996) School Children as Pedestrians in Cairo: Proxies for Improving Road Safety. Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 122, No. 4, American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), U.S.A. pp. 291-299.
   2- Abbas K. A., Mabrouk I., and Al-Araby A. K. (1994) Traffic Behaviour of School Children in Cairo: Implications for Road Safety. Proceedings of the 22nd European Transport Forum Organised by Planning and Transport Research and Computation (PTRC), Seminar J: Traffic Management and Road Safety, Warwick, UK pp. 83-99.

Abstract:

This research attempts to infer the pattern of traffic behaviour of school children. In doing so, the study seeks to measure the factors that affect traffic behaviour of school children. These include: traffic experience, traffic cognitive skills and abilities, traffic perceptual skills, traffic attitude and traffic knowledge. The study would endeavour to explore the extent that these factors contribute to the traffic behaviour of school children in Cairo. The study also aims to perceive and identify the constraints that hinder the mobility of school children and the traffic hazards that they encounter. A sample of school children is chosen. The sample is chosen to represent different parameters such as affluence of district where school is located, type of school, level of education, gender and age of school children. A specially designed questionnaire is completed by the sample (1615 school child). The purpose of this questionnaire is to measure the level of traffic knowledge as well as traffic attitude of school children. In addition, the data collected would help in defining the level of traffic experience that school children possess. Collected data items include: gender and age of school children, age at which children were first permitted to deal with traffic on their own, type and intensity of road traffic to which children are exposed. In addition, several traffic-related perceptual questions were included in the questionnaire. In conclusion, measures aimed to enhance (raise and improve) the existing levels of school children traffic experience, traffic cognitive skills and abilities, traffic perceptual skills, traffic attitude and traffic knowledge, and hence traffic behaviour are suggested. In addition different safety actions, (engineering, educational, enforcement, publicity, regulatory), are examined. Appropriate methods that are meant to eventually improve the road safety situation for school children are recommended.

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1. 3- Al-Araby A. K., Mabrouk I., and Abbas K. A. (1996) Traffic Perception, Attitude and Skills of School Children: An Assessment of Contributing Elements. Proceedings of the International Conference Road Safety in Europe and Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP), Prague, The Czech Republic - No. 4A, Part 2: High Risks and Road User Groups, pp. 194-209. Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.

Abstract:

In recent years, many countries have been giving more attention to the traffic safety of children. Unfortunately in most developing countries, the situation is still relatively neglected. Of all factors contributing to children accidents in developing countries, the most significant are poor traffic behaviour and non compliance with traffic rules by children due to flawed traffic perception and attitude, inadequate traffic knowledge and training and lack of skills. In this research a strong emphasis is given to analyzing the effect of age gender socioeconomic background and type of schooling differences have on children’s traffic behaviour in Cairo. Traffic behaviour of children is known to be affected by traffic perception, attitude, skills and knowledge. A stratified random sample of 1615 school children representing various degrees of affluence, age gender and type of schooling were surveyed and results were analysed. In addition, traffic behaviour of school children in particular walking and crossing patterns was videotaped to assess their actual behaviour and validate stated behavioural patterns. The research concludes that socioeconomic background is the leading factor affecting children’s behaviour followed by type and stage of school. Children gender was found only to affect traffic perception and attitude with no significant difference between boys and girls in traffic knowledge and skills. Of all children investigated, children in the primary school stage who live in leas affluent districts ad attend public schools were found to be the most exposed to traffic and exhibit the worst traffic behaviour. The research concludes with a selected set of policy recommendation and countermeasures that could be investigated further to accommodate differences in age gender socio economic background and type of schooling of children.

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1. 1- Mabrouk I., and Abbas K. A. (1994) Pedestrian Environment Problems Encountered by the Mobility Handicapped in Cairo. Proceedings of the 22nd European Transport Forum Organised by Planning and Transport Research and Computation (PTRC), Seminar J: Traffic Management and Road Safety, Warwick, UK pp. 101-111.

Abstract:

The pedestrian walking and crossing environment in Cairo is considered to be unfriendly and uncomfortable for ordinary pedestrians. The situation is much more aggravated when it comes to a handicap person walking on sidewalks or crossing streets in Cairo. This paper presents the results of a questionnaire survey that was specially designed with the purpose of identifying the perception of mobility handicapped to pedestrian environment problems that they face in the streets of Cairo. It was decided to concentrate the research efforts on surveying the Physically Handicapped and the Visually Impaired people. These two groups were thought to be the most significantly hindered groups in terms of transport mobility. The paper concludes by suggesting a set of policies and measures that could be adopted and implemented to improve the pedestrian environment for the mobility handicapped in Cairo and to relieve the current problems that they encounter when moving along sidewalks and whilst crossing streets.

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1. 2- Abbas K. A. and Mabrouk I. (1994) Physically Handicapped and Visually Impaired: Trip Characteristics and Transport Problems in Cairo. Proceedings of the 22nd European Transport Forum Organised by Planning and Transport Research and Computation (PTRC), Seminar F: Provision for Accessible Transport Services, Warwick, UK pp. 43-59.

Abstract:

The overwhelming majority of residents in Cairo, the capital of Egypt, face many transport-related problems in their daily commuting. However, these problems are magnified when encountered by the handicapped people. In addition, mobility handicapped confront other transport problems that can be directly related to their type of disability. This study aims to recognise the trip characteristics of the mobility handicapped in Cairo as well as to identify the perception of mobility handicapped towards the seriousness of the problems that they encounter when using public transport modes, namely Cairo Transport Authority (CTA) buses. These objectives were achieved through conducting a questionnaire survey with a sample of the mobility handicapped in Cairo. The questionnaire is of the revealed preference type. It comprises ranking and choice type of questions. A total of 172 Physically Handicapped and 142 Visually Impaired people completed the questionnaire. The questionnaire responses were analysed to investigate, understand and statistically infer the trip characteristics and the transport problems of the mobility handicapped in Cairo. The study concludes by suggesting a set of policies and measures that are meant to relieve the transport problems confronted by the mobility handicapped, and in general to improve their public transport accessibility and mobility.

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1. 3- Abbas K. A., and Mabrouk I. (1995) Mobility of Vulnerable Road Users in Cairo. Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Mobility and Transport for Elderly and Disabled People, Volume 2, Session: Access Solutions for Countries in Transition.

Abstract:

In recent years, many countries in the world are giving more attention to improving the safe and easy mobility of vulnerable road users. The road environment in many urban areas is relatively uncomfortable and sometimes even hazardous. The paper presents the results of surveys that took the form of 3 questionnaires that were specially designed with the purpose of identifying the most profound mobility difficulties and traffic safety problems that vulnerable road users (pedestrians, physically handicapped and visually impaired) face while walking on sidewalks and crossing roads in Cairo (i.e. problems related to the road environment, drivers' behaviour, police enforcement).

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1. 1- Abbas K. A., Bell M. G. H., and Crouch F. O. (1990) Computer-Based Support for the Management of Investments in Road Infrastructure. Proceedings of the 18th Planning and Transport Research and Computation (PTRC) Summer Annual Meeting, Seminar J/K: Highway Appraisal Design and Management/Highway Construction and Maintenance, Sussex, UK, pp. 41-45/85-98.

Abstract:

Road transport is regarded as one of the key elements that contributes to the economic growth and development of a country. Lack or deterioration of roads represents a major obstacle to the prosperity and well-being of a country and investments in construction, maintenance and upgrading of roads constitute a large portion of their transport budget. The growing conflict between the requirements of the road network and the available financial resources is one of the most serious problems with which highway authorities have to deal. There is a need for simplified planning techniques that are capable of testing alternative strategies for investing in the road network. These tools should provide powerful support to highway decision-makers so that they can make more rational and informed decisions. Decisions should be targeted towards achieving a better management and control of the road network system to maximise and sustain the benefits obtained from road investments. Financial stringency requires the development of road management systems. These systems can be described as computerised, analytic tools that consider the whole-life costing of alternative strategies for the road network. These tools enable the testing of alternative planning programmes for the highway sector and hence the effective management of the road network.

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1. 2- Abbas K. A. (1993) Illustration of SDPMS: A Generic Pavement Management System. Proceedings of the XII International Road Federation (IRF) World Congress, Volume III, Session 4: Road Maintenance Techniques, Madrid, Spain, pp. 149-158.

Abstract:

In any transport system, financial resources are consumed in constructing, administrating and maintaining the road network to an adequate standard. This paper introduces a Pavement Management System developed using the concepts of System Dynamics methodology SDPMS. The main objective of the SDPMS is to act as a tool for testing the consequences of different road policies on the development of the road network. The policy analysis is concerned with those aspects of the road system that the decision-maker can control. To demonstrate the utility of the SDPMS for policy analysis, alternative scenarios for allocating and generating road funds were simulated. A set of simulation runs was performed on the computer in an attempt to understand what effects changes in the amount and timing of road funds might have on the performance of the road network. In these runs, road funds were stochastically specified with the same mean and standard deviation. The main change from one run to another was in the initial integer (seed) that randomises the sequential generation of values of road funds in the same manner as repeated Monte Carlo simulation. To compare these alternatives, some of the main indicators that show the structural performance of the road network, over time are displayed.

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1. 3- Abbas K. A., Fattah N. A. & Farhat H. H. (2003) A Proposed Bridge Inspection and Maintenance Management System (BIMMS) in Egypt. Civil Engineering Research Magazine (CERM), Faculty of Engineering, Volume 25, No. 2, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt.

Abstract:

Bridges are considered as one of the most valuable transport infrastructure assets. One of the major factors affecting the life span and the safety of traffic on bridges is their physical condition. In this context, bridges should be inspected and maintained in accordance with a management plan, which is part of a wider bridge management system aiming at sustaining the physical condition of bridges in an acceptable form. This paper is concerned with proposing a Bridge Inspection and Maintenance Management System (BIMMS) in Egypt. In pursuing this objective, the literature was reviewed and two questionnaire forms, concerned with details of the components of bridge inspection and maintenance, were designed, piloted, refined and distributed between two groups of specialized respondents. The first group includes a number of professional employees holding key positions concerned with bridge construction, inspection and maintenance at the Egyptian Railway Authority, the Egyptian Roads and Bridges Authority as well as the Roads and Transport Bureau at Cairo governorate. The second group includes a number of Egyptian academics specialized in the fields of structural, road and bridge engineering and management. Completed questionnaires were collected. These were thoroughly analyzed using a number of statistical tests. The first test aimed at investigating the independence of responses between the two responding groups. Based on the results of this test, descriptive statistics, either for the two groups combined or for each group separately, were computed to show the central tendencies of the responses. Finally, goodness of fit tests were also applied in an effort to determine whether some of the collected data are fitting common statistical distributions. Based on the results of the questionnaire analysis as well as on the literature review, a proposed Bridge Inspection and Maintenance Management System (BIMMS) was envisaged for Egypt.

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1. 1- Abbas K. A., and M. G. H. Bell (1994) System Dynamics Applicability to Transportation Modelling. Transportation Research, Vol. 28A, No. 5. Pergamon Press, UK pp. 373-400.

Abstract:

The main focus of this paper lies in reviewing and evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of the System Dynamics (SD) methodology with respect to its suitability and appropriateness to transportation modelling. This evaluation helps in gaining an appreciation of how the SD modelling style can contribute to understanding better the relationships between elements of the transport system and between transport and its environment. It establishes the ease with which SD can be applied to construct useful tools for testing alternative transport-related policies.

Paper (pdf viewer link) This article may be used for research, teaching and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, re-distribution, re-selling, loan or sub-licensing, systematic supply or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden.

1. 2- Abbas K. A. (1990) A Road Provision Model Using System Dynamics. In System Dynamics '90, D. F. Andersen, G. P. Richardson and J. D. Sterman (Eds.). The System Dynamics Society, Cambridge, Mass., pp. 1-15.
   http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/1990/proceed/pdfs/abbas001.pdf

Abstract:

One of the most difficult tasks facing highway administrators is how to efficiently manage the allocation of road funds. In this paper, a comprehensible, easy-to-use, highway management tool is presented. This tool takes the form of a computer simulation model, which is intended to assist managers of a network of highways to make better decisions concerning the allocation of scarce funds. It mainly simulates the effects of different investment strategies and maintenance options on the road network. This is done by tracing the life-cycle costs of the major activities of providing and maintaining the road system, and by considering the effects that these activities have on the state and performance of the road network.

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1. 3- Abbas K. A. (1990) The Use of System Dynamics in Modelling Transportation Systems With Respect to New Cities in Egypt. In System Dynamics '90, D. F. Andersen, G. P. Richardson and J. D. Sterman (Eds.). The System Dynamics Society, Cambridge, Mass., pp. 16-30.
   http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/1990/proceed/pdfs/abbas016.pdf

Abstract:

Since the development of System Dynamics, it has been applied successfully to a range of complex problems in different areas. However, relatively little use of the methodology has been made in the field of transportation. This paper attempts to review and evaluate the utility of the System Dynamics methodology for transportation studies, showing that it is well suited to the needs of various analytical problems in transportation. In fact, System Dynamics offers a potential way forward for transportation planning in general. The focus of this paper is on appreciating the strengths and weaknesses of the methodology of System Dynamics as an aid to reach a better understanding and appreciation of the dynamic, feedback relationships between the transport system and the other major sectors contributing to the development of a new city in the Egyptian desert.

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1. 4- Abbas K. A. (1990) A System Dynamics Road Provision Model. In Dynamic Analysis of Complex Systems. V. D'Amato & C. Maccheroni (Eds.). Franco Angeli, Milano, Italy. pp. 93-100.

Abstract:

The growing conflict between the requirements of the road network and the available financial resources is one of the most serious problems with which highway authorities have to deal. There is a need for simplified planning techniques that are capable of testing alternative strategies for investing in the road network. These tools are meant to provide a powerful support to highway decision-makers so that they can make more rational and informed decisions. The main purpose of this study is to construct a dynamic simulation model that describes the structural feedback interactions of the road system. The model is meant to analyse and show the impacts of alternative road strategies. This will eventually lead to a more efficient management of the funds available for roads as well as to a more effective road maintenance programme. The paper attempts to indicate alternative ways for managing the allocation of the available road funds into major categories. The process involved in the evaluation of alternative road strategies is also introduced.

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1. 5- Abbas K. A., and Bahgat A. (1992) A Process of Knowledge Representation for Developing Transport Models. Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Expert Systems and Development, Session 5: Expert Systems Applications in Engineering-II. Expert Systems for Improved Crop Management Project (ESICM), Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation (MOALR), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Food & Agriculture Organisation (FAO). Cairo, Egypt. pp. 145-155.

Abstract:

The main focus of this paper lies in presenting a structured process of knowledge representation, which constitutes the main qualitative part of a powerful modelling methodology known as System Dynamics. System Dynamics can contribute to understanding better the relationships between elements of the transport system and their environment. It can also be applied to construct useful tools for testing alternative transport-related policies.

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1. 6- Abbas K. A. (1993) Expert Systems in Transportation: Usefulness and Applicability. Proceedings of the Al-Azhar Engineering 3rd International Conference: Volume 4: Civil Engineering: Transportation and Traffic Engineering, Cairo, Egypt, pp. 492-508.

Abstract:

The main focus of this paper lies in reviewing the Expert Systems (ESs) technology and evaluating the strengths and the weaknesses of applying ESs to solving transportation problems. This evaluation helps in gaining an appreciation of how ESs can contribute to the field of transportation.

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1. 1- Abbas K. A. (2003) User Charging for Roads in Egypt: A Case Study of Cairo-Alexandria Toll Road. In Proceedings of European Transport Conference, Seminar On Financing Infrastructure: Risk Assessment in Road Funding. Strasbourg, France.
   http://www.etcproceedings.org/paper/road-user-charging-for-roads-in-egypt-a-case-study-of-cairo-alexandria-toll-ro

Abstract:

This research starts by reviewing the current situation of toll roads in Egypt. The core of the research is to develop a simulation model that can be used to compute toll rates that are equivalent to the benefits enjoyed by road users. A case study of the first and most vital toll road in Egypt, namely Cairo Alexandria desert road, is considered. In this context, a review of traffic patterns on the road is presented. Several methodological steps are then followed as part of the framework for simulating the effects induced by changes in toll rates on travel demand as well as on toll revenues. First, vehicle operation costs, time passenger costs, as well as vehicle running time costs are reviewed from previous studies and updated. This is culminated into the formulation of generalized cost functions for four types of vehicles on both alternative roads along the Cairo-Alexandria corridor, namely the Cairo-Alexandria desert tolled road as well as the Cairo Alexandria agriculture road. The expected difference in the generalized costs is considered as a benefit for road users using the Cairo-Alexandria desert road. These are compared with current charged tolls and the discrepancy of charging very low toll rates is identified. The discrepancy represents the forgone income by the road agency. In order to simulate the effect of toll rate changes on traffic demand as well as on generated toll revenue, four binary logit route assignment models are calibrated for each type of vehicles constituting the traffic stream. In the effort to develop such models, data is compiled to estimate Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) by type of vehicle on these roads as well as to establish appropriate traffic growth rates. The logit models are used to obtain the expected demand using each road in light of changes in toll rates. Four graphs showing the demand pattern as a function of toll rate changes are produced for the four types of vehicles, on the two alternative roads. Finally four bell shaped curves describing the toll revenue changes with respect to toll rate changes are produced for each of the four types of vehicles. These curves can assist decision makers to determine an optimum or a sub-optimum toll rate that generates maximum revenue from road users or that induces a certain demand split between the two roads serving the Cairo-Alexandria corridor.

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1. 2- Abbas K. A., Fattah N. A. & Reda H. R. (2003) Developing Passenger Demand Models for International Aviation from/to Egypt: A Case Study of Cairo Airport and Egyptair. In Proceedings of Air Transport Research Society, pp. 1-14. Toulouse, France.
   http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20050156072_2005082769.pdf

Abstract:

This research is concerned with developing passenger demand models for international aviation from/to Egypt. In this context, aviation sector in Egypt is represented by the biggest and main airport namely Cairo airport as well as by the main Egyptian international air carrier namely Egyptair. The developed models utilise two variables to represent aviation demand, namely total number of international flights originating from and attracted to Cairo airport as well as total number of passengers using Egyptair international flights originating from and attracted to Cairo airport. Such demand variables were related, using different functional forms, to several explanatory variables including population, GDP and number of foreign tourists. Finally, two models were selected based on their logical acceptability, best fit and statistical significance. To demonstrate usefulness of developed models, these were used to forecast future demand patterns.

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1. 3- Abbas K. A. (2004) Conceptual and Regression Models for Passenger Demand Prediction: A Case Study of Cairo Airport and Egyptair. Invited Paper to Aerlines Magazine. E-Zine edition - Issue 26, pp. 1-4. University of Amsterdam, Netherlands.
   http://www.aerlines.nl/issue_26/Abbas_Pax_Demand_Prediction.pdf

Abstract:

The main aim of this research is to develop demand models for passenger aviation from/to Cairo airport. The paper starts by forming a conceptualisation of main factors affecting passenger demand for international air transport from/to Egypt. In addition, a conceptualisation is drawn portraying factors influencing passenger selection of Egyptair, as a potential international carrier. Following this, historical data concerning aviation demand variables as well as other explanatory variables thought to affect this demand is collected and compiled from several sources. Demand variables are historically plotted to determine the most proper and representative ones. A correlation matrix is then computed using Pearson coefficient to show extent of relation between demand variables and selected explanatory variables. Based on these analyses, it is decided to develop single and multiple variable models, using different functional forms, relating air passenger demand to population, GDP and number of foreign tourists. All calibrated models are subjected to logical and statistical tests. Finally, two models were selected based on their logical acceptability, best fit and statistical significance. The paper concludes with a demonstration of usefulness of selected models in terms of ability to predict future passenger demand levels.

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1. 4- Abbas K. A. (2004) Developing a Generic Algorithm For Assessing Financial Feasibility of Build-Operate-Transfer Road Projects. In Proceedings of 10th World Conference on Transport Research WCTR2004, Session E1: Assessment and Appraisal Methods with Respect to Transport Infrastructure Projects and Transport Activities. Istanbul, Turkey.
   5- Abbas K. A. (2000) Towards Bankable Build-Operate-Transfer Road Projects: A System Approach for Assessing Financial Feasibility. In Al-Azhar University Engineering Journal: Special Issue of Proceedings of Al-Azhar Engineering Sixth International Conference, Cairo, Egypt, pp. 645-684.

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with developing a detailed generic algorithm to assist in conducting a comprehensive and structured financial feasibility assessment of private investment in road projects. The developed algorithm constitutes eight stages, namely defining the objectives of the project, traffic analysis, conducting Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA), estimation of potential costs, forecasting of project revenues, estimation of key financial criteria and comparing these with project financial objectives so as to determine project viability. Finally, the eighth stage is concerned with minimising uncertainties and risk through a three level procedure of conducing scenario analysis, sensitivity tests and risk analysis. Several conclusions are deduced, the most important of which is the importance to forecast and analyse the development of traffic flows over the life of a BOT road project. This forecast should particularly run over the time period considered for evaluating the proposed BOT scheme. The paper revealed the importance of using disaggregate traffic demand forecasting models for BOT road projects. Such quality traffic models are meant to forecast demand for different types of vehicles throughout the operation period rather than at peak periods. This is crucial for the rigor required in the forecasting of revenue, which is detrimental for establishing the project viability. The paper identified a number of parameters as critical to the financial success of a BOT road project. These include: length of the concession period, toll categories and rates, traffic growth rates, discount rate, etc.

This article may be used for research, teaching and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, re-distribution, re-selling, loan or sub-licensing, systematic supply or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden.

This article may be used for research, teaching and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, re-distribution, re-selling, loan or sub-licensing, systematic supply or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden.

1. 1- Abbas K. A. (1993) Management Training in Light of Deregulation of the Egyptian Transport Industry. Proceedings of 21st Planning and Transport Research and Computation (PTRC) Summer Annual Meeting, Manchester, UK, pp. 231-251.

Abstract:

This paper explores the different components of the training cycle. Its main emphasis lies in presenting the results of a questionnaire survey designed to assess management training needs of some major Egyptian transport organisations. The assessment is considered in light of the relatively recent moves towards deregulation of these organisations. The paper discusses some of the questionnaire results.

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1. 2- Abbas K. A. (1993) Management Training in the Egyptian Transport Organisations: Is there a Difference. Proceedings of the International Conference on Training for the Future. Organised by the Public Authority for Applied Education and Training (PAAET), Kuwait.

Abstract:

A questionnaire survey was undertaken in an attempt to infer the way in which senior managers of transport companies/authorities as well as transport experts in Egypt perceive the main components of the training cycle. This paper was mainly concerned with establishing whether there exists a difference in the responses of the questionnaire among the main responding groups. This comparison is meant to test whether as a result of the different transport activities that the organisations in each of these groups undertake, there will be a difference in the way their senior managers perceive different components of the training process. It attempts to statistically infer whether responses of senior managers of transport organisations, regarding training process, would significantly differ from those of transport experts.

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